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Prediction for CME (2025-05-12T23:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-12T23:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38837/-1
CME Note: Bright loop CME first seen in the North by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-12T23:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is two very large filament eruption, one seen on the Earth facing disk, and the other on the far side. The Earth facing filament has footpoints at approx. N20W50 and N50E60, where as the far sided filament appears to be just beyond the NW limb. These filaments are best seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming and field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. In coronagraphs, the on disk eruption appears to over shadow the far sided eruption, and they appear as one feature. Complex arrival signature characterized by a gradual increase in B total from 7 nT to eventually 22 nT, accompanied by rotation of two or more magnetic field components (with periods of negative Bz) and by a gradual increase of solar wind speeds from just over 400 km/s to initially 550 and eventually to over 700 km/s. Around 2025-05-17T04:10Z there is a short pileup followed by a decrease in ion density and a very fast rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-05-16T20:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-16T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 85.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50513
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2025  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2025  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2025  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 019

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Coronal mass ejections: ... A wide CME directed to the north was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around
01:00 UTC on May 13. The CME is most likely associated with a long filament eruption observed in AIA 304 data around 23:00 UTC on May 12 near the central meridian in mid-latitude north hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth starting from the UTC afternoon on May 16.

...

NOTE: This CME prediction is associated with a CME start time of 2025-05-12T23:36Z.

Lead Time: 77.43 hour(s)
Difference: 0.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-13T14:44Z

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